Card went 11-4, the best week of the year, and the season is 76-57-3. We went 8-1 on the favorites and 3-3 on the dogs. It was a week about quarterbacks, good and bad. Full board below, every pick is on the picks page.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ RavensJaguars -10 | Jaguars 33-10 (43 pts) | OVER 39.5 | Jaguars -10 | WIN |
| Bengals @ FalconsBengals -3 | Bengals 34-17 (51 pts) | UNDER 52.5 | Bengals -3 | WIN |
| Broncos @ PanthersBroncos -2.5 | Broncos 26-21 (47 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Broncos -2.5 | WIN |
| Browns @ SaintsSaints -3 | Saints 23-22 OT (45 pts) | OVER 42.5 | Browns +3 | WIN |
| Cowboys @ ColtsCowboys -5.5 | Cowboys 27-23 (50 pts) | UNDER 51.5 | Cowboys -5.5 | LOSS |
| Lions @ DolphinsLions -7 | Lions 19-9 (28 pts) | UNDER 50.5 | Lions -7 | WIN |
| Jets @ ChiefsChiefs -10 | Chiefs 35-12 (47 pts) | UNDER 47.5 | Chiefs -10 | WIN |
| Rams @ CommandersRams -4.5 | Rams 20-13 (33 pts) | UNDER 48.5 | Rams -4.5 | WIN |
| Giants @ EaglesGiants -3.5 | Giants 19-11 (30 pts) | UNDER 38.5 | Giants -3.5 | WIN |
| Texans @ ChargersTexans -4.5 | Texans 44-22 (66 pts) | OVER 40.5 | Chargers +4.5 | LOSS |
| Raiders @ 49ers49ers -10 | 49ers 38-17 (55 pts) | OVER 52.5 | Raiders +10 | LOSS |
| Cardinals @ SeahawksSeahawks -8.5 | Seahawks 17-3 (20 pts) | UNDER 39.5 | Cardinals +8.5 | LOSS |
| Packers @ PatriotsPatriots -3.5 | Packers 45-27 (72 pts) | OVER 45.5 | Packers +3.5 | WIN |
| Buccaneers @ BearsBears -6 | Bears 27-24 (51 pts) | OVER 47.5 | Buccaneers +6 | WIN |
| Bills @ VikingsBills -3.5 | Bills 23-6 (29 pts) | UNDER 45.5 | Bills -3.5 | WIN |
Lines are what I bet at, best available before kickoff. Card went 11-4. Favorites went 11-4 against the number, totals went 8 under, 7 over.
Shedeur Sanders Didn't Win the Job
Everyone is asking if Shedeur did enough to earn another start, as if he played well. He wasn't bad, 19 of 31 for 297 and two touchdowns with no picks, but he was sacked five times and the Browns scored 16 points in regulation before losing 23-22 in overtime. To the Saints. Now personally, I think they have to go back to Watson, at least for now. Unfortunately for the Browns, they have actually been winning games at 5-4, so ownership will want to compete if they can. They aren't going to throw the season away to see what Sanders has. He didn't light up the Saints, and it's clear that if he has something, it's not super special as it is.
Lions Were Closer Than Expected
This was just way closer than anticipated. It was 3-3 after one quarter and 6-3 at the half, and the Lions won 19-9 against a Dolphins team that is 1-7 with the worst pass defense in the league. Goff was 17 of 25 for 170 with no touchdowns and a pick. Not ready to write the Lions off quite yet, they're 6-2, but generally good teams should stomp bad teams. This was a sign.
Chiefs Rolled the Jets
I thought Mahomes died after that hit, but after a semi-slow start the Chiefs rolled the Jets 35-12. They were negative EPA per play in both the first and second quarters and plus 0.41 in the third. Mahomes was 23 of 31 for 242 and two touchdowns with no picks, but was hit eight times.
The Rams Offense Is in Pieces
First it was the defense that was a complete no-show in the first week, 27 points allowed to the Niners, then Garrett went out for a while and they were middling. Now Garrett's back alongside Donald, and the defense we expected in the preseason is here, 9 points allowed in Week 8 and 13 on Sunday. But now the offense is torn to pieces, with Adams out on injured reserve and Puka now hurt too. They beat Washington 20-13 as 4.5-point favorites and barely did it. Stafford was 26 of 42 for 228 with a touchdown and a pick, and quietly, he's been mid. He has 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year and is 15th in EPA per dropback. Quite literally middle of the pack.
Love Bombs
All I can say is wow. The Packers are on a historic pace in terms of passing and deep ball efficiency in particular. Love was 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns with no picks in a 45-27 win in New England, and 31 percent of his throws traveled 20 or more yards in the air. He completed six of nine of those for 235 yards. Through nine games, 18.2 percent of his attempts are 20-plus-yard throws, the highest rate in the league and the sixth highest of any quarterback season since 2016 with at least 250 attempts. Love bombs!
Caleb Williams Was Atrocious
The cover is nice, but this was more about the Bears. I made my point clear that we anoint these quarterbacks way too quickly, and just last week everyone was ready to call Caleb the best quarterback in football, and despite the win he was atrocious. He was 22 of 37 for 279 with four interceptions. He had thrown one all year through Week 8. The Bears are 7-2 and survived 27-24, and the Bucs covered the six, which was my pick. Mayfield was 18 of 32 for 243 yards with no touchdowns and two picks, after throwing for 64 yards total in the two games before it. I think the Bucs will come out of the division but just get annihilated first round.
A Single-Digit Passer Rating
I don't know the last time I've seen a quarterback with a single-digit rating. That seems like an impossibility. Carson Wentz did it with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring, 8 of 24 for 81 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions, a passer rating of 9.2, the lowest of any quarterback with 15 or more attempts this year. The Vikings lost 23-6 to the Bills at home, their second straight loss after starting 6-0, and the six points are the fewest they've scored all season. Well on their way to the 4-game losing streak we called.
The Rest
A win is a win at this point if you're the Cowboys, 27-23 over the Colts, and they didn't cover the 5.5, which cost me. Dak was 21 of 34 for 335 and two touchdowns with no picks, and they're 4-5. The Chargers are 0-8 after losing 44-22 to the Texans, with Stroud throwing for 384 and five touchdowns, and maybe they can go 0-17. The Giants beat the Eagles 19-11 to move to 5-2-1, the Raiders lost 38-17 in San Francisco, and the Cardinals got beat 17-3 in Seattle.
Conclusion
11-4 on the week and 76-57-3 on the year. Week 10 picks will be on the picks page before kickoff.