7-9 on picks this week, 25-22-1 on the season. Not too bad. The favorites got me, especially Seattle as I'm sure they got a lot of folks. I went 4-7, with the Bengals, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles, and Rams all failing to cover. The five dogs went 3-2. Everything is on the picks page. A few quick hits, then the pathetic Titans.
Drake Maye threw two more picks in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. That’s six interceptions and one touchdown in three games. See why I’m not quick to crown quarterbacks? One good statistical year and everybody wanted to skip to top 5 QB.
It’s over for the Chargers. 0-3, the offense is 31st in the league, and Herbert has four picks. The Bucs also are in real trouble. Also 0-3, the offense is dead last, 32nd of 32, and Baker Mayfield is the worst quarterback in football through three weeks by EPA, behind Maye, behind Rodgers, behind even Cam Ward. Two teams that were supposed to be in the playoff conversation and neither one can move the ball.
The Rams have gotten a lot of benefit of the doubt this year, including from me, and I laid the 2.5 in Denver. They lost 30-26 and they’re 1-2 with an offense that ranks 15th. The Garrett and Donald additions were supposed to make this the best team in football and they gave up 27 to the 49ers and 30 to the Broncos in the two losses. It might be time to be concerned.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ PackersPackers -4.5 | Falcons 35-14 (49 pts) | OVER 42.5 | Falcons +4.5 | WIN |
| Chargers @ BillsBills -7 | Bills 24-16 (40 pts) | UNDER 50.5 | Bills -7 | WIN |
| Panthers @ BrownsPanthers -2.5 | Browns 21-18 (39 pts) | UNDER 42.5 | Panthers -2.5 | LOSS |
| Bengals @ SteelersBengals -3.5 | Steelers 30-27 (57 pts) | OVER 42.5 | Bengals -3.5 | LOSS |
| Jets @ LionsLions -6.5 | Lions 31-24 (55 pts) | OVER 47.5 | Lions -6.5 | WIN |
| Texans @ ColtsTexans -2.5 | Colts 19-17 (36 pts) | UNDER 42.5 | Texans -2.5 | LOSS |
| Patriots @ JaguarsJaguars -3 | Jaguars 35-6 (41 pts) | UNDER 45.5 | Jaguars -3 | WIN |
| Chiefs @ DolphinsChiefs -10.5 | Chiefs 24-10 (34 pts) | UNDER 46.5 | Chiefs -10.5 | WIN |
| Titans @ GiantsGiants -3 | Giants 12-7 (19 pts) | UNDER 39.5 | Titans +3 | LOSS |
| Seahawks @ CommandersSeahawks -7 | Commanders 33-31 (64 pts) | OVER 40.5 | Seahawks -7 | LOSS |
| Cardinals @ 49ers49ers -8.5 | 49ers 36-30 (66 pts) | OVER 47.5 | 49ers -8.5 | LOSS |
| Vikings @ BuccaneersVikings -1.5 | Vikings 23-16 (39 pts) | UNDER 42.5 | Buccaneers +1.5 | LOSS |
| Ravens @ CowboysRavens -3.5 | Ravens 34-31 (65 pts) | OVER 52.5 | Cowboys +3.5 | WIN |
| Raiders @ SaintsSaints -3 | Raiders 35-27 (62 pts) | OVER 43.5 | Raiders +3 | WIN |
| Rams @ BroncosRams -2.5 | Broncos 30-26 (56 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Rams -2.5 | LOSS |
| Eagles @ BearsEagles -4.5 | Bears 27-7 (34 pts) | UNDER 41.5 | Eagles -4.5 | LOSS |
Lines are what I bet at, best available before kickoff. Card went 7-9-0. Totals went 8 under, 8 over.
The Titans
They lost 12-7 to a Giants team that did not score a touchdown. Jameis Winston was 14 of 22 for 118 yards. New York kicked four field goals and won. Tennessee out-gained them 262 to 238, and by the good-snaps ledger the Titans actually had the better game, 39% good snaps to 36%. They lost anyway, because they punted on six straight possessions to open the game, missed a 59-yard field goal at the end of the half, turned it over on downs at the Giants’ 7 in the third quarter, and threw an interception in the end zone from the 7 with 24 seconds left. Four trips inside the 40, one touchdown vs four FGs for the Giants.
Three games in, the Titans are 0-3 with a grand total of 37 points scored and 59 allowed. They have four touchdowns in three games. 17 of their 29 drives have ended in a punt. They are 15 of 38 on third down. The offense ranks 23rd in the league by EPA which frankly is a miracle, and the defense, which was supposed to be the whole point of hiring Saleh, ranks 20th, again, a modern miracle. The one thing they’ve done well is not turn it over, one giveaway in three games, and on Sunday the one came at the goal line with the game on the line.
Cam Ward is 55 of 88 for 504 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. That’s 5.7 yards per attempt, 26th of the 27 quarterbacks with 60 dropbacks, ahead of only Daniel Jones. By EPA per dropback he’s 23rd. He was 23 of 36 for 181 against the Giants, no sacks, one touchdown, and the interception that ended it. He isn’t losing games by himself, the way Maye is. He also isn’t winning any, like at all. He's barely winning plays, and he just had a game with zero sacks and Winston on the other sideline. Seven points. The brief flash against the Eagles and the end of this game looks more like the exception every week.
I already wrote about it, so I won’t repeat it here. The short version is that if they fired Robert Saleh today it would be the shortest tenure for a permanent head coach in the history of the league, and I’d be fine with it. Daboll too. This is not a team that’s close and getting unlucky.
Titans at Baltimore this week. The Ravens just put up 34 in Dallas. It's on the board this team doesn't win a game, it has to be.