First losing week since Week 3. We went 6-8, and on the season are 50-41-2, and the theme of the week is that everything I believed in August is wrong. Five teams from my preseason power rankings top ten, the Rams, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, and Chargers, are a combined 8-22.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks @ BroncosSeahawks -2.5 | Broncos 17-14 (31 pts) | UNDER 40.5 | Broncos +2.5 | WIN |
| Texans @ JaguarsJaguars -2.5 | Texans 34-31 (65 pts) | OVER 42.5 | Jaguars -2.5 | LOSS |
| Bears @ FalconsBears -1.5 | Bears 31-23 (54 pts) | OVER 51.5 | Bears -1.5 | WIN |
| Ravens @ BrownsRavens -3.5 | Browns 13-10 (23 pts) | UNDER 40.5 | Ravens -3.5 | LOSS |
| Panthers @ EaglesPanthers -3.5 | Panthers 25-14 (39 pts) | OVER 38.5 | Panthers -3.5 | WIN |
| Titans @ ColtsColts -7 | Titans 26-20 (46 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Titans +7 | WIN |
| Jets @ PatriotsPatriots -7.5 | Patriots 26-19 (45 pts) | OVER 43.5 | Patriots -7.5 | LOSS |
| Saints @ GiantsSaints -1.5 | Saints 34-27 (61 pts) | OVER 45.5 | Giants +1.5 | LOSS |
| Steelers @ BuccaneersSteelers -2.5 | Steelers 26-19 (45 pts) | OVER 39.5 | Buccaneers +2.5 | LOSS |
| Cardinals @ RamsRams -12.5 | Cardinals 18-16 (34 pts) | UNDER 51.5 | Rams -12.5 | LOSS |
| Bills @ RaidersBills -4.5 | Bills 33-30 (63 pts) | OVER 53.5 | Raiders +4.5 | WIN |
| Chargers @ ChiefsChiefs -7.5 | Chiefs 22-6 (28 pts) | UNDER 41.5 | Chiefs -7.5 | WIN |
| Cowboys @ PackersPackers -1.5 | Packers 23-13 (36 pts) | UNDER 53.5 | Cowboys +1.5 | LOSS |
| Commanders @ 49ers49ers -7.5 | 49ers 23-17 (40 pts) | UNDER 51.5 | 49ers -7.5 | LOSS |
Lines are what I bet at, best available before kickoff. Card went 6-8. Totals went 6 under, 8 over.
Broncos Have a Bo Nix Problem
Despite the win. Denver is 4-2 and the defense ranks ninth, so this gets glossed over, but the offense ranks 25th and has scored 114 points in six games. Nix is 22nd of 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback with six touchdowns and three picks, and on Thursday he threw for a whopping 107 yards. One hundred and seven, in a game that went to overtime. The defense beat the Seahawks. Nix was along for the ride, and that is the second time in three weeks the offense has finished a game in the red. If Denver is going to be what I had them as, which is fourth in the preseason, the quarterback has to be more than a game manager with a bad week every other week.
Texans Are a Total 180
Last year the Texans had the best defense in football by EPA and the 21st-ranked offense, and Stroud threw 19 touchdowns to 8 picks. This year the offense is 12th and the defense is 20th. Stroud has nine touchdowns and one interception, he's 11th in EPA, and he went 24 of 34 for 312 and three scores in Jacksonville. What has happened?
Season From Hell for the Eagles
2-4. Tanner McKee started, not Hurts who is now out for the season, and went 26 of 45 for 215. The offense ranks 30th, it has been negative EPA for four straight weeks so that was with Hurts as well, scoring 24, 24, 7, 20, 17, 14. Hurts, when he was in there, had eight touchdowns, three picks, 13 sacks, 23rd in EPA. The defense is 27th, so it isn't one side of the ball, the Eagles have been flat out bad. I had them ninth in August so I was somewhat skeptical I suppose. But, the Panthers walked into Philadelphia as favorites and won by 11, and nobody who has watched the last four weeks was surprised.
Titans Get Their First Win and Still Look Awful
1-5. Cam Ward was 11 of 22 for 102 yards, the offense ranks 31st, and they have 84 points in six games. They beat the Colts because the Colts are potentially worse, and this was such a terrible loss for Indianapolis that it got the GM fired. Indy's defense ranks 26th and has given up 164 points, and Daniel Jones threw two picks, which puts him at four touchdowns and six interceptions on the year, 27th in EPA. I took the Titans out of spite and it hit. I was most certainly unimpressed though. An 0-5 scoring 14 a game winning on the road is a story about the other team.
Big Trouble in Hollywood
The Rams were 12.5-point favorites against a Cardinals team that had given up more points than anyone in the league, and they lost, 18-16. They're 2-4 with nine giveaways. Stafford has 11 touchdowns and six picks, 16th in EPA, and the offense I had as the best in football ranks tenth. I had them first. First. The defense is fine minus their guys at tenth, which somehow makes it all worse.
Chargers, 0-6
No one saw this coming, even Chargers skeptics. The offense is dead last, they have 14 giveaways, most in the league, and Herbert is 31st of 32 in EPA per dropback with five touchdowns, eight picks, and 21 sacks. They scored six in Kansas City. I had them tenth in August, and the only thing that was right about that is they're still in the top ten of something, it's just turnovers.
Cowboys, Yikes
You traded Micah Parsons, spent all that capital to acquire other, worse players, and the defense is the same if not worse. Dead last in EPA last year. Dead last in EPA this year. They have given up 23 or more in five of six games, 159 total. And now the offense is underperforming too. It was fifth last year and it's eighth now, which sounds fine until you look at the last two weeks, negative EPA in both, 13 points in Green Bay, and Dak at 34 of 55 for 258 with two picks. He's 10 touchdowns and five picks on the year, 13th in EPA. The whole point of trading Parsons was that the offense could carry a bad defense and in the offseason they supposedly fixed they defense. They haven't, and it can't.
Jayden Daniels, Two Weeks
In two weeks he has gone from a lovable quarterback everyone thinks is on the ascent to two of the most boneheaded decisions we've seen from a quarterback, in back-to-back weeks. And that doesn't include any of the offseason drama. The box score doesn't show it, 29 of 38 for 300 and two touchdowns in San Francisco, and the Commanders have only two giveaways all season. The problem isn't turnovers. It's what happens with the game on the line. Washington is 1-4-1, has given up 172 points, third most in the league, and the defense ranks 24th. Quinn's seat was warm last week. It's scorching hot now.
The Rest
Caleb Williams came back and went 30 of 36 for 305 against Atlanta, which is the Bears offense I was told about before the season. Huntley started for the Ravens with Lamar out and Baltimore scored ten in Cleveland. Maye threw three touchdowns and the Pats won by exactly seven against a 7.5 line, same thing with the Niners winning by six against 7.5. Shough threw three touchdowns against the Giants and Winston threw two picks which is typical. Allen and Cousins traded blows in Vegas and the Bills needed one of the crazies throws of my life.