It’s Week 1. The one rule of opening weekend is don’t overreact, and I am about to overreact for about a thousand words. Here’s every result first, with the line, the total, and what I had. I went 8-7-1, which is fine for a week where nobody has film on anything. the full card and my notes on every pick are on the picks page.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ SeahawksSeahawks -3 | Seahawks 13-10 (23 pts) | UNDER 44.5 | Seahawks -3 | PUSH |
| 49ers @ RamsRams -3.5 | 49ers 27-7 (34 pts) | UNDER 48.5 | Rams -3.5 | LOSS |
| Falcons @ SteelersSteelers -3 | Steelers 20-13 (33 pts) | UNDER 42.5 | Steelers -3 | WIN |
| Ravens @ ColtsRavens -3.5 | Ravens 41-23 (64 pts) | OVER 47.5 | Colts +3.5 | LOSS |
| Bills @ TexansBills -1.5 | Bills 36-31 (67 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Bills -1.5 | WIN |
| Bears @ PanthersBears -3 | Bears 59-37 (96 pts) | OVER 47.5 | Panthers +3 | LOSS |
| Buccaneers @ BengalsBengals -3.5 | Bengals 33-27 (60 pts) | OVER 50.5 | Bengals -3.5 | WIN |
| Browns @ JaguarsJaguars -8.5 | Jaguars 34-10 (44 pts) | OVER 40.5 | Jaguars -8.5 | WIN |
| Saints @ LionsLions -7 | Lions 31-30 (61 pts) | OVER 49.5 | Lions -7 | LOSS |
| Jets @ TitansTitans -1.5 | Jets 23-10 (33 pts) | UNDER 39.5 | Titans -1.5 | LOSS |
| Cardinals @ ChargersChargers -10 | Cardinals 26-14 (40 pts) | UNDER 47.5 | Chargers -10 | LOSS |
| Packers @ VikingsVikings -1.5 | Vikings 39-22 (61 pts) | OVER 46.5 | Vikings -1.5 | WIN |
| Dolphins @ RaidersRaiders -3.5 | Raiders 27-13 (40 pts) | UNDER 41.5 | Raiders -3.5 | WIN |
| Commanders @ EaglesEagles -5.5 | Eagles 24-22 (46 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Eagles -5.5 | LOSS |
| Cowboys @ GiantsCowboys -3 | Giants 28-20 (48 pts) | UNDER 48.5 | Giants +3 | WIN |
| Broncos @ ChiefsChiefs -3 | Chiefs 31-10 (41 pts) | UNDER 43.5 | Chiefs -3 | WIN |
Lines are what I bet at, best available Tuesday before kickoff. Card went 8-7-1. Totals split 8-8.
The Titans
The Titans were one of about six teams where Week 1 matters in a very different way. New head coach, new coordinator, a second-year quarterback who was the number one pick, and a fan base coming off two straight years of nothing. For those teams the opener isn’t a data point, it’s the first real look at whether any of it worked. And they failed. Miserably. I mean pathetic, historically bad. And nobody cared. It isn’t worth a footnote to the NFL world and it shouldn’t be, which is the point I made a few weeks ago. It just proved it faster than I expected.
I didn’t think it was possible for it to get worse than the last two years, and then they hired Robert Saleh, who I didn’t want. I settled down once Brian Daboll came in as the offensive coordinator. Okay, at least they got two real guys, one for each side of the ball, and I liked some of the players they brought in. I think Carnell Tate is fine, not fine as in that’s his level, fine as in I don’t think he’s the reason he’s been a non-factor all preseason and in game one. I love the linebacker, Anthony Hill, number 53. He looks JUST like Keith Bulluck, he’s wearing Bulluck’s number, and I have to believe the armbands are intentional. Then they got gashed on the ground by the Jets, and picked apart by Geno Smith and the Jets, of all teams, at home, 23-10, and looked completely inept, not just bad.
I was ready to fire Callahan after Week 1 last year, and yes, I am already there with Saleh and this group, Cam Ward included. This team hasn’t brought in talent, on the field or on the staff, and they are staring at a year-long competition for the number one pick with the Browns and the Dolphins. Cam Ward may turn out to be good, maybe even great. He’ll never do it in a Titans uniform. Maybe someone should bring Levis in and see what’s in there. I used to think the Titans were at least not a team that ruined quarterbacks, they just hadn’t gotten many good ones. I could be flatly wrong about that. Do I think Levis is good? Probably not. But I have now watched this team go from AFC Championship contender and number one seed to quite literally one of the most uncompetitive teams I’ve ever seen.
Looking at the schedule, maybe they clip the Browns in Week 7. I’ll give them an anything-goes shot against the Raiders and the Commanders later in the year. There isn’t another win in sight. Frankly I hope they go 0-8 into the bye, fire the entire front office, and do something else. Everything between the players and the owner needs to be wiped clean, and then some of the players too. I’d be trading Jeffery Simmons for whatever haul I can get, and anyone else over the age of 29, and going full court press on insert name here, because obviously I don’t know who. That’s not the point. The point is DO SOMETHING.
The Other Notes
Drake Maye. I don’t know why people go crazy after a handful of games or a single season. I like Drake Maye, I don’t love him. He had every benefit of the doubt going into the playoffs last year, which I thought was crazy, but he had a good statistical season and people go nuts over numbers. Then he wet the bed in the playoffs. Then he did it again in Week 1, ten points in Seattle, and now everyone wants to call him Drake Maybe. This is a classic case of wanting to be right instead of getting it right.
It’s the same reason people won’t let go of their Justin Herbert takes, and of every quarterback who played this week he had one of the worst performances, losing at home to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals by 12 as a 10-point favorite. We saw Cam Ward. We saw the Packers get dog-walked by the Vikings, 39-22, after years of hearing Jordan Love, Jordan Love, Jordan Love. I don’t love a single thing about his game.
Everything else, I didn’t react to. The Bears and Panthers scoring 96 points, the Bills and Texans scoring 67, the 49ers walking into Australia and beating the Rams by 20. It all fit squarely into it’s Week 1...for now.