7-7 for the week, season is 65-53-3. We were heavy on the favorites this week and went 6-5 on those and 1-2 on the dogs. Lamar Jackson lasted one play, Penix threw four picks in a shutout, and Caleb Williams was the best quarterback to face Seattle all year. Full board below, every pick is on the picks page.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers @ PackersPackers -3.5 | Packers 27-19 (46 pts) | UNDER 47.5 | Packers -3.5 | WIN |
| Cardinals @ CowboysCowboys -7 | Cardinals 33-30 (63 pts) | OVER 54.5 | Cowboys -7 | LOSS |
| Falcons @ BuccaneersBuccaneers -2.5 | Buccaneers 16-0 (16 pts) | UNDER 44.5 | Buccaneers -2.5 | WIN |
| Ravens @ BillsBills -3 | Bills 36-10 (46 pts) | UNDER 54.5 | Bills -3 | WIN |
| Titans @ BengalsBengals -10 | Bengals 43-36 OT (79 pts) | OVER 46.5 | Bengals -10 | LOSS |
| Browns @ SteelersSteelers -3.5 | Steelers 27-6 (33 pts) | UNDER 39.5 | Browns +3.5 | LOSS |
| Vikings @ LionsLions -3 | Lions 19-15 (34 pts) | UNDER 46.5 | Lions -3 | WIN |
| Colts @ JaguarsJaguars -10 | Jaguars 42-7 (49 pts) | OVER 46.5 | Jaguars -10 | WIN |
| Raiders @ JetsJets -1.5 | Raiders 38-33 (71 pts) | OVER 45.5 | Raiders +1.5 | WIN |
| Chargers @ RamsRams -6.5 | Rams 24-9 (33 pts) | UNDER 45.5 | Rams -6.5 | WIN |
| Chiefs @ BroncosChiefs -1.5 | Broncos 28-24 (52 pts) | OVER 40.5 | Chiefs -1.5 | LOSS |
| Patriots @ DolphinsPatriots -7 | Patriots 24-19 (43 pts) | UNDER 43.5 | Patriots -7 | LOSS |
| Eagles @ CommandersCommanders -6 | Commanders 27-10 (37 pts) | UNDER 40.5 | Eagles +6 | LOSS |
| Bears @ SeahawksSeahawks -3 | Bears 34-17 (51 pts) | OVER 46.5 | Seahawks -3 | LOSS |
Lines are what I bet at, best available before kickoff. Card went 7-7. Favorites went 8-6 against the number, totals went 8 under, 6 over.
Titans Can't Even Lose Right
They were all over the Bengals. Tennessee led 13-0 after the first quarter, tied it at 36 in regulation, and lost 43-36 in overtime. Saleh's defense still gave up 36 in regulation despite getting four takeaways, and Burrow threw for 462 and five touchdowns with three picks. I've been super critical of Saleh, Daboll, and Ward, and I have to be honest when it's in front of me. Daboll had some questionable play calls, but Ward looked legitimately sharp for once. He was 26 of 41 for 304 and two touchdowns with no interceptions, and the 36 points are the most the Titans have scored all year by ten. You trade away potentially the best defensive player in football, and I hate that it came to this point, but for two first-round picks it's the thing to do. That said, at this point you need to be losing games. And honestly, the last thing we need is for Ward to play well the back half of the year. I need this thing to be over. They need to restart and the next two years, they will have a war chest of picks.
What Do You Do About Lamar Jackson
He didn't last one play. Lamar took one dropback, it was incomplete, and that was it, no fault of his own but it is what it is. Huntley took five dropbacks after that and a third quarterback, Fagnano, finished the game, and the Ravens lost 36-10. If he's out after one play it's probably bad enough that he's going to be out next week if not longer.
*Edit, he is.
He was first in the league in EPA per dropback at plus 0.36 when it happened. Do you give him an extension in the offseason? He signed a five-year, $260 million deal in 2023, so I mean it's a real question. It's likely season over for the Ravens at this point and this has been a weird couple weeks. They're 4-4, last in the AFC North behind three teams at 5-3 or better, and they've scored 10, 13, and 10 in their last three games and lost all of them by a combined 84-33.
Cowboys Should Trade Dak
Call me crazy, but I'd be trading Dak if I were the Cowboys. They lost 33-30 at home to a Cardinals team playing Minshew and Brissett, Dak was 19 of 29 for 195 and got sacked four times, and the defense is still dead last. They're 3-5, tied for the ninth-worst record in the league. Dak is 33 and he isn't getting this team anywhere. Even with significant improvement this year and next offseason they won't be Super Bowl contenders, and he'll just be a year older and more expensive, and for what? I'd trade him for obviously one of the biggest hauls you could get and just reboot this thing. They won't get the top pick overall and that's fine, they just need to be in the top six or so and they can get there. Yes, it's crazy, and it will never happen, but what are we doing here?
Penix Looks Like Tua
Penix looks alarmingly like Tua, like physically. Pushing the ball, weak arm. Am I crazy? Yes, it was an awful weather game, but if you are going to do it, I'm going to judge it. Against Tampa he was 8 of 24 for 125 yards and four interceptions in a 16-0 loss, minus 1.0 EPA per dropback, and he fell from eighth in the league in EPA per dropback to 17th in one game. And worse, to the eye, he just looked awful. His average throw travels 7.3 yards, below the league average of 7.7 and down from 8.3 last year, and only 9.5 percent of his throws go 20 or more yards against 11.3 for the league. Tua's average throw was 5.7 yards in 2024, so he isn't there yet. He's a yard shallower than he was a year ago though.
Caleb Williams Is Good
Can't continue to deny what my eyes see. I asked if it was the coming out party or the not there yet game, and it was the first one. The Bears went to Seattle and absolutely put it on them, 34-17, and Caleb was pretty good, I can't go to great. He was 24 of 34 for 247 with no picks, the only quarterback to eclipse 200 yards against the Seahawks defense this year, and nearly hit 250. Every other quarterback they've faced was at 189 or fewer, and that was the second-ranked defense in the league coming in. Caleb is now third in EPA per dropback and the Bears are 6-2.
The Rest
I took the Eagles because I thought they had too much talent to be six-point dogs to the Commanders. They scored ten, McKee was sacked five times, and they're 2-6. The Chiefs followed the three-point game with a 28-24 loss in Denver and are 5-2, the Patriots won by five and didn't cover the seven, and the Raiders won 38-33 in New York. The Jaguars beat the Colts 42-7 and the Rams beat the Chargers 24-9.
Conclusion
7-7 on the week and 65-53-3 on the year. Week 9 picks will be on the picks page before kickoff.