NFL Week 2 Thoughts

17-13-1 on picks through two weeks, which is a way better start than last year. 9-6 this week with the Rams -7 tonight against the Giants.

Quick hits: Josh Allen is on a September tear again, 248 and three touchdowns through the air, 69 and two more on the ground against Detroit, we’ll see if he can carry it through an entire season this time. The Falcons got destroyed, 34-3 at home to Carolina, and who knows who is playing quarterback there is still the question. The Texans defense has to be looking at Stroud sideways. He threw it 53 times for 353 yards and the team scored six points, with four drives ending on fourth down. I got destroyed by the Steelers-Patriots game, Pittsburgh scored three and Rodgers got sacked four times, but Maye still looks shaky. The rest of the board went about how it looked. Bengals handled Houston, the Broncos bounced back, the Raiders and Cousins won by 12 in Los Angeles, Seattle beat Arizona by 24 with a backup, Dallas avoided 0-2 in the division, the Niners beat Miami by 22 coming back from Australia, and the Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Colts and didn’t come close to covering. All of it is on the picks page with my notes.

The Saints

Something told me to pick the Saints and I didn’t listen. I laid 8.5 with Baltimore because Lamar looked like Lamar in Week 1 and Henry ran through the Colts. Then the Ravens led 17-9 going into the fourth quarter and scored nothing else. Their last four drives went field goal, punt, punt, interception. So much for the collapses being Harbaugh’s fault. Same team, same script, new coach, and it turns out Lamar Jackson actually does need to stop throwing dumb picks at the end of games. He was 21 of 33 for 235 before that, fine, and the Ravens were 4 of 9 on third down with a blocked field goal mixed in, so the offense was stalling long before the throw. Shough was 27 of 34 for 252, drove 68 yards for a touchdown twice in the fourth quarter, and scored the winner himself from the 1 with 1:32 left. Baltimore out-gained them 312 to 300 and lost by seven at home as an 8.5-point favorite. That is a lot of Ravens things in one afternoon.

The Bears

It sucks to see Caleb Williams get hurt, he left with 7:42 to go in the fourth and Bagent finished. But three points? After 59 last week, and everybody was already over their skis on this guy. Here is the part that should bother Bears fans more than the score. Chicago out-gained Minnesota 297 to 246 and scored three points. They had a drive end on an interception, a drive end on a fumble at the Minnesota 1, a drive end on a missed field goal from the 5, and a drive end on downs at the 12. Four possessions inside the Vikings’ 35 and three points to show for it. Minnesota won 9-3 with 246 yards of offense. That is not a defense that got exposed. That is an offense that could not finish a single drive, one week after finishing eight of them. The 59 was the outlier obvioulsy. I said last week I wasn’t buying it and I took the Vikings and the points, and the Vikings won the game outright.

Packers at Jets

This was my favorite bet of the week and it cashed, the Jets plus 3.5 in a game they lost 20-17 in overtime and should have won outright. I’ll say it again. The Packers stink. Green Bay gained 199 yards. They went 2 for 10 on third down. Jordan Love was 16 of 29 for 145 and got sacked three times, and they needed overtime to beat be the Jets. They are supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. The Jets lost that game without a single turnover, which is hard to do. A coin flip game, and Green Bay won the coin flip. LaFleur keeps his job for another week, and Love keeps his reputation for reasons I still cannot find on the field.

Eagles at Titans

I published a piece this week on the difference between good and bad teams, and the short version is that the team that wins and the team that loses run the same game on about 119 of 125 snaps. Yardage plays, chunk gains, first downs, all within a few percent. The six that separate them are the ones that end a drive. Then I watched the Titans play the Eagles and it was that article in one game.

Tennessee won the highlight reel. The 'good plays'. Two interceptions to none, one of them a 92-yard return by Hooker that set up Ward’s touchdown from the 10. More sacks. More 20-yard plays, five to three, including a 41-yarder to Ayomanor and a 27-yard run by Spears on third and 22. If you graded this game the way people grade games on television, the Titans won it. They lost by three good snaps. Philadelphia ran 21 more plays than Tennessee and turned that into 12 more good ones, and then the game came down to two red zone trips. The Titans got to the Eagles’ 9 with the lead late in the fourth and kicked a field goal to go up 20-17 instead of putting it away. The Eagles took the ball at their own 35, converted a third and six on a 20-yard throw to Wicks, and scored with 14 seconds left. Same yardage, same chunk plays, same number of drives that ended in points, four each. The difference was one touchdown from the 9 that didn’t happen and one third and six that did.

I laid the seven, which was wrong, and I said last week I couldn’t bet on the Titans in good faith, which was also wrong for one afternoon. They covered. They also lost a game they should have won against a team that was there for the taking, and I’m not sure which one of those is the takeaway. Ward was still not very good. The defense was okay. And in the end, the team is 0-2, and I’d still like move on. Ask me in Week 7.

Rams -7 tonight.