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By the Numbers
Who wins the close ones, and who blows the lead
2020-2025 regular seasons. Every one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer), split by outcome. The dashed line is a 50-50 coin flip.
Close games are mostly luck, and it shows: most of the league sits near even. Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin wins the most and blows the fewest leads, the ideal. The gut-punch team is Baltimore, a middling record dragged down by a league-worst 18 fourth-quarter leads coughed up. And the bottom of the board, Arizona and Jacksonville, both loses the close ones and hands back leads. When a good team does lose a one-score game, it is usually a collapse, because good teams are the ones with the lead to lose.
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