Preseason power rankings are half guesswork, and I'm fine with that. Here's my read on all 32, in five tiers, sorted by what I actually expect this year and how much I'd trust each team when it matters.
No Notes
Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Ravens, Cowboys.
The real contender list is probably closer to four, but if you told me any of these eight hoisted the Lombardi, I'd buy it without blinking. The Rams are my #1 even over the champs. They went 12-5 with a plus-172 point differential, added Myles Garrett, might get Aaron Donald back, and returned basically their whole core.
The fun part of this tier is how many teams come with an asterisk. The Cowboys had the fifth-best offense in football last year and the single worst defense, dead last at 32nd, so they can score with anyone and stop no one. That's a Super Bowl team or a 9-8 shootout machine depending on the week. The Ravens went 8-9 and Vegas still handed them an 11.5 win total, the highest in the league, a straight bet on the bounce-back. And the Chiefs went 6-11. I still have them right here, because I'm not betting against Mahomes until the calendar forces me to. Seattle's the champ and earned it with the second-ranked defense in the league, and Houston sneaks in on the back of the best defense in football.
The Hot Seat
Eagles, Chargers, Bears, Patriots, Lions, Bengals, Packers, Vikings, 49ers.
Reach the Super Bowl or somebody's getting fired, or a quarterback's getting replaced. The Patriots are the one exception. They had the number-one offense in the league last year with Drake Maye, and short of a real backslide, this is a free roll for them.
Everyone else is on the clock. How many more years do Herbert and the Chargers get to come up short? They went 11-6 with the 25th-ranked offense, the defense carried them, and at some point Herbert has to drag that unit somewhere in January. The Eagles spent all of last year in drama and supposedly cleaned it up over the offseason, so a down year is a real problem now. The Bears are betting on Caleb's leap, and it's real, he improved across the board in year two, but his completion rate over expected was still negative, so the accuracy has to catch up. Then the Bengals, who went 6-11 with the 29th-ranked defense. They've slipped for a few years running and need to actually go somewhere this season.
On the Clock
Buccaneers, Jaguars, Steelers, Commanders, Colts, Panthers.
Not quite Super Bowl-or-bust, but everyone here needs a good season for their own reasons. Tampa's had noise all offseason, and a bad year validates all of it, probably costing Baker money in a lame-duck season for him and Todd Bowles. His completion percentage over expected dropped from plus-3.6 to minus-2.1 last year, which is not the direction you want it moving in a contract year.
The Jaguars should feel way more heat than they do. They went 13-4 with the third-ranked defense in the league and nobody's talking about them, which is its own kind of disrespect. The Colts and Panthers are both just desperate for a quarterback who can finally deliver on the talent around them. Indy got a career-best season out of Daniel Jones and still went 8-9, which tells you where the ceiling is until that spot gets solved.
Measuring Stick
Titans, Giants, Saints, Falcons.
Nobody here is expected to do much, so a playoff berth would blow you away and count as a full success. Tennessee is the interesting one. They went 3-14 and then brought in a lot: Robert Saleh, a defensive-minded success story, and Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, which I didn't love at first but came around on. They also got a real weapon in Carnell Tate to grow with Cam Ward, who had a rough rookie year, a 37% success rate that was the worst of any starter. Let's see if the help moves the needle.
Same question for the Giants and Saints. Last year was a nice little pop for both, but was that the ceiling, or is something actually cooking with Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough? We find out now.
The Cope
Raiders, Cardinals, Jets, Browns, Dolphins.
Outside of Carson Beck in Arizona, there's not much to get excited about here. Playoffs aren't the conversation. Winning a game is. Is it Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland, and does it even matter when the camp news is bad either way? The Browns actually had the fifth-ranked defense last year, so the quarterback is the entire problem. Will Malik Willis physically survive the season in Miami? And how long until we see Mendoza in Vegas, or do the Raiders shock everyone, ride Kirk Cousins to a real year, and barely play him at all? That's unlikely, but it'd be outstanding for the Raiders.
The point of a preseason board
None of this survives September, and that's fine. Ask me again at the quarter mark and half of it is rearranged. But if I'm circling one team to watch, it's the Cowboys. Best offense in the league, worst defense in the league, and a fanbase that either gets the run it's waited thirty years for or a 10-win team that loses a playoff game 38-35. There's no boring version of their season, and in August that's about the best thing you can say about a team.