Picks went 8-5-1, season is 58-46-3. The dogs did it again, Falcons, Bengals, and Giants all cashed, and the two favorites I lost were the Panthers and Jets. Favorites went 8-5 on the week, the first time since Week 2 the chalk has won a week outright. Four things stood out to me.
| Matchup / line | Final | Total | My pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ BearsBears -2.5 | Bears 30-24 (54 pts) | OVER 49.5 | Bears -2.5 | WIN |
| Steelers @ SaintsSteelers -2.5 | Steelers 16-10 (26 pts) | UNDER 43.5 | Steelers -2.5 | WIN |
| 49ers @ Falcons49ers -4.5 | Falcons 29-20 (49 pts) | UNDER 50.5 | Falcons +4.5 | WIN |
| Bengals @ RavensRavens -3 | Bengals 35-13 (48 pts) | UNDER 50.5 | Bengals +3 | WIN |
| Buccaneers @ PanthersPanthers -3.5 | Buccaneers 43-13 (56 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Panthers -3.5 | LOSS |
| Browns @ TitansBrowns -1.5 | Browns 27-24 (51 pts) | OVER 36.5 | Titans +1.5 | LOSS |
| Giants @ TexansTexans -9.5 | Giants 27-21 (48 pts) | OVER 43.5 | Giants +9.5 | WIN |
| Colts @ VikingsVikings -5.5 | Vikings 16-10 (26 pts) | UNDER 41.5 | Vikings -5.5 | WIN |
| Dolphins @ JetsJets -4.5 | Dolphins 28-25 (53 pts) | OVER 38.5 | Jets -4.5 | LOSS |
| Broncos @ CardinalsBroncos -4.5 | Broncos 30-16 (46 pts) | OVER 42.5 | Broncos -4.5 | WIN |
| Packers @ LionsLions -3 | Lions 20-17 (37 pts) | UNDER 52.5 | Packers +3 | PUSH |
| Rams @ RaidersRams -5.5 | Rams 35-21 (56 pts) | OVER 46.5 | Raiders +5.5 | LOSS |
| Chiefs @ SeahawksSeahawks -2.5 | Seahawks 20-3 (23 pts) | UNDER 42.5 | Chiefs +2.5 | LOSS |
| Cowboys @ EaglesCowboys -4.5 | Cowboys 38-21 (59 pts) | OVER 44.5 | Cowboys -4.5 | WIN |
Lines are what I bet at, best available before kickoff. Card went 8-5-1. Favorites went 8-5, totals went 6 under, 8 over.
Titans, Back to Being Terrible
Obviously the one-win momentum was short-lived. They went right back to really bad football, as expected. 27-24 at home to a Browns team whose offense ranks 26th, with Deshaun Watson throwing for 308 on them. Two giveaways, Cam Ward 20 of 31 for 181 with no touchdowns and a pick, and he's now 31st of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback with four touchdowns and five interceptions on the year. 1-6. The 24 points were the second most they've scored all season and they still lost to Cleveland.
The Vikings Gave J.J. McCarthy Away
For a bag of peanuts and a water. A 2027 fifth-round pick, on September 28, after he'd been buried third on the depth chart behind Carson Wentz. If the Vikings end up with a quarterback problem, and they have one, it's going to be really bad. Daniel Jones, gone. Sam Darnold, gone. Kirk Cousins, gone. J.J., now gone. All of them would be better options right now with the exception of maybe Jones, who is coming off the injury and hasn't looked the same. Cousins is 11th in EPA per dropback with 16 touchdowns. Darnold is 23rd. Kyler Murray, the guy they're running out there, is 29th at minus 0.14, with three touchdowns in five starts. Jones is 30th, so fine, keep him off the list. McCarthy in a game and a half with the Giants is at plus 0.25, which would be sixth if he had the dropbacks. This isn't the J.J. they drafted in Minnesota and that's fine, but in the short time since, letting him go has been a disaster. The Vikings are 6-0 because the defense is first in the league. The offense is the direct opposite at 29th. They beat the Colts 16-10 on Sunday and scored one touchdown. That holds up in October. It does not hold up in January.
Are the Giants a Real Team?
4-2-1. They went into Houston as 9.5-point dogs and won in overtime, 27-21. McCarthy was 20 of 27 for 252, no turnovers, and the offense had its best game since Week 1, plus 0.24 EPA per play. Winston, for the record, finished at minus 0.12 with seven touchdowns and five picks across five starts, 27th in the league. So the offense went from a bottom-six quarterback to a top-six one for a fifth-round pick, on a team with a defense that ranks 18th and had already beaten Dallas, Tennessee, and Arizona on its way to 3-1-1. If J.J. keeps this pace or anything close to it, they're going to be a real problem for the NFC. I'm not calling them good yet. I'm saying a 4-2-1 team just got a quarterback, and that's a different team than the one that tied the Commanders.
Chiefs, Three Points
Not surprised they lost though I picked them. Seattle was favored and the Seahawks' defense ranks second in the league. What I did not have on the bingo card, for any single game this year, was the Chiefs scoring three total points, not taking a single snap inside the 20, and looking completely inept. Fifty offensive plays, zero red-zone snaps. Eight drives: three punts, two missed field goals, a turnover, a turnover on downs, and one field goal. Mahomes was 19 of 33 for 165 with a pick. Three points ties the lowest total of any game Mahomes has started, the other being the 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021. They're 5-1 and the offense still ranks fifth, so I'm not burying them. But a 20-3 with no red zone trips is the kind of game that doesn't happen to this team, and it just did.
The Rest
Burrow threw four touchdowns in Baltimore and the Bengals won by 22 with Lamar still out. Dak had three touchdowns on Monday night and the Cowboys put 38 on the Eagles, who are 2-5 and gave up 38 at home with McKee starting again. The Bucs scored 43 in Carolina and Bryce Young threw two picks at minus 0.64 EPA per dropback, his worst game of the year by a mile. The Falcons beat the Niners for San Francisco's first loss. The Rams finally covered, 35-21 in Vegas. Caleb Williams went for 308 and two scores on Thursday night.
Conclusion
Favorites won the week, the Vikings handed the Giants a quarterback, and the Chiefs played the worst game of the Mahomes era. 58-46-3 on the year. Week 8 picks will be on the picks page before kickoff.