Two weeks in, the DraftKings salaries are still mostly last year’s salaries. That’s not a knock, it’s how the pricing works. A salary is built off what a guy has already done, so it lags what he’s about to do, especially this early in the season.
Obviously, two games is nothing. So instead of ranking guys on raw points, I graded each one against what DraftKings is charging for his position. A $5,600 quarterback is expected to score about 16. A $7,400 running back about 21. I care about the gap between what the price implies and what actually happens, and I’m still shrinking that toward the price before I trust it, because a lot of the two-game averages are one big game.
Who Is Beating the Price
Bryce Young is the top performer by far. He’s $5,600, which is bottom of the league and backup money, and he’s averaging 29.8, which is more than Josh Allen’s $8,000 price implies. Fourteen points a game over his salary. Tyler Shough is the same story, $5,400 and averaging 25.8 after two comeback drives in Baltimore. Mahomes at $6,200 is seven points over his price. Behind the quarterbacks, the biggest gaps are all cheap receivers. Jalen Coker at $5,500 is averaging 25.7 with a 36-point game already. Denzel Boston at $4,500 and Devaughn Vele at $4,400 are both doubling their price. Dalton Schultz at $4,200 is the tight end version, 18.3 a game with a 29 in there.
The other side is where the money is bleeding. DraftKings is still charging $7,000 for Saquon Barkley, who has six points a game. $8,300 for McCaffrey, who’s scoring like a $6,000 player though I think that's more game script than his level of performance. $8,100 for Ja’Marr Chase at 14.9, and $6,500 for Malik Nabers at 7.0. Drake Maye at $6,100 with four interceptions and a 10.9, and I’ve said what I think about Maye. Some of these are matchups and some are injuries and some are just September, but all of them are salary you can’t afford to spend on a hope and dream right now.
The Week 3 Pool
| Player | Salary | DK avg | Pts per $1k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | $8,000 | 39.7 | 5.0 |
| Bryce Young | $5,600 | 29.8 | 5.3 | |
| Patrick Mahomes | $6,200 | 27.3 | 4.4 | |
| Tyler Shough | $5,400 | 25.8 | 4.8 | |
| Brock Purdy | $6,500 | 25.3 | 3.9 | |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | $7,400 | 32.0 | 4.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | $6,200 | 24.7 | 4.0 | |
| Derrick Henry | $7,700 | 28.0 | 3.6 | |
| Jonathan Taylor | $7,600 | 27.7 | 3.6 | |
| Chuba Hubbard | $6,100 | 19.1 | 3.1 | |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $8,600 | 37.4 | 4.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,900 | 33.5 | 4.2 | |
| Jalen Coker | $5,500 | 25.7 | 4.7 | |
| Chris Olave | $7,200 | 26.9 | 3.7 | |
| Denzel Boston | $4,500 | 17.2 | 3.8 | |
| Devaughn Vele | $4,400 | 15.7 | 3.6 | |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | $4,200 | 18.3 | 4.4 |
| Travis Kelce | $4,500 | 19.1 | 4.2 | |
| Dalton Kincaid | $5,500 | 21.8 | 4.0 | |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,700 | 18.1 | 3.9 | |
| DST | Patriots | $2,700 | 13.5 | 5.0 |
| Bengals | $2,900 | 14.5 | 5.0 | |
| Steelers | $2,700 | 13.0 | 4.8 | |
| Raiders | $2,600 | 12.5 | 4.8 |
Main slate only, healthy, two games played. Coker is listed questionable.
So I wanted to build a team based on the numbers. First we needed a pool of players. Allen is in because 39.7 a game is 39.7 a game, even at $8,000. Smith-Njigba and St. Brown are in for the same reason. Everybody else is in because of what a dollar buys. Kenneth Walker at $7,400 in Kansas City is the one expensive back I’ll pay for on a general week at 32 a game. That won't sustain though and I'll probably avoid him this week since they play Miami who is awful and may spell him a bit. Swift at $6,200 is a value at the position, 24.7 with a 35 already. At tight end the whole pool is under $5,600, because the two guys above that, McBride and Bowers, are either fairly priced or hasn't played yet, and the position is about floor. Besides, Schultz, Kelce, Kincaid, and Likely all cost less than a mid-tier receiver.
The Lineup
| Slot | Player | Game | Salary | DK avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | BUF · LAC@BUF | $8,000 | 39.7 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC · KC@MIA | $7,400 | 32.0 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | CHI · PHI@CHI | $6,200 | 24.7 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO · LV@NO | $7,200 | 26.9 |
| WR | Jalen Coker | CAR · CAR@CLE | $5,500 | 25.7 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | PHI · PHI@CHI | $4,100 | 13.9 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU · HOU@IND | $4,200 | 18.3 |
| FLEX | Devaughn Vele | NO · LV@NO | $4,400 | 15.7 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT · CIN@PIT | $2,700 | 13.0 |
| Total | $49,700 | 209.9 |
DK avg is the two-game average DraftKings lists on the salary file. Adding up averages is not a projection, it’s what these nine did in September.
The final team is pay up for the two guys who have earned it, Allen and Walker, and then buy the four players the salaries haven’t caught up to. Coker, Vele, Wicks, and Schultz cost $18,200 combined and averaged 74 points a week between them. That’s $4,700 less than McCaffrey, Chase, and Nabers cost, and those three averaged 40. Olave over St. Brown is the one place I took the cheaper guy at the top, $700 less for six fewer points a game and a Saints offense that has scored 24 or more in both games with Shough.
Two overrides on what the numbers spit out. The numbers suggest Boston over Wicks and the Raiders defense, and the Raiders play the Saints, so it was stacking Olave and Vele against my own defense. Steelers at the same price fixes that, and Wicks is the result of $400 that pays for the swap. And if Coker sits, Boston goes back in and Steelers to Raiders. The other version of this is Bryce Young at quarterback. It projects within a point of the Allen driven team and leaves $2,400 to turn Wicks into a another receiver.
The salaries will catch up. By Week 6, Coker and Vele will cost what they’re worth, and Saquon and Chase will cost what they’re doing. The window where the price is wrong is right now, which is the whole point of the DFS page on this site. Buy the guy the salary hasn’t caught up to, and don’t pay for the name.