The preseason board had ten tiers and 55 quarterbacks. A month in, I’m down to seven, and the top of the list looks a lot different than it did in August. Lamar is hurt, Caleb is hurt, Dart is done for the year, and a bunch of guys I had in the top ten have stepped in it big time. The full board is on the QB tiers page. Here’s how I’m seeing it four weeks in:
King
Mahomes stands alone once again. Nine touchdowns, two picks, 4-0, and the Raiders game is the only one that was close.
King
1 QB
Patrick Mahomes=Can You See It
I can see each of these guys holding up the Super Bowl trophy at the end of the year. Allen, Lawrence, Burrow, Dak, Purdy, Stafford. Purdy has been excellent short of last week, first in EPA per dropback among the 31 quarterbacks with 60 or more, eleven touchdowns to one pick, and he has not been sacked yet this season. Lawrence is third in EPA with eight touchdowns and two picks, so I guess I am finally showing up to the party. Dak would be the hardest case given his defense, but if you squint hard enough you can see it, and eight touchdowns to one interception helps. Stafford has six picks in four games and still made the cut because he’s Stafford and I'm giving the Rams a little grace.
Can You See It
6 QBs
Josh Allen=
Trevor Lawrence▲12
Joe Burrow=
Dak Prescott▲1
Brock Purdy▲11
Matthew Stafford▼4What’s Going On Here?
Lamar is hurt, who knows how long he’s out. He left the Titans game, but before that he was second in the league in EPA per dropback. Drake Maye started off terribly, seven interceptions through four games, then went into Buffalo and beat Josh Allen and the Bills 29-26 with three touchdowns. Penix is back, two starts, 33 of 46 for 479 yards, and the Falcons just hung 45 on the Saints. Are they for real? Need a little more time but he has been great through 2 games. Sam Darnold doesn’t look like the guy from last year, six touchdowns to three picks and a negative EPA since he came back in Week 3. Goff has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions but he’s in here too, because I still don’t know what the Lions are. We need more time with this bunch.
What’s Going On Here?
7 QBs
Lamar Jackson▼3
Bryce Young▲16
Kirk Cousins▲12
Michael Penix▲20
Drake Maye▼5
Jared Goff▼5
Sam Darnold▼1Cold Leftovers
Caleb Williams is hurt. Two games, that’s all we’ve seen, and I can’t keep him in the top ten on two games, one of which was bad. The rest of these guys, you’re really just scraping the bottom of the barrel. Rodgers has been sacked 13 times and has four picks. Daniel Jones has three touchdowns to four picks and is 28th of 31 in EPA per dropback. Geno hasn’t thrown an interception and he’s still here. But one or a few of these guys will make the playoffs.
Cold Leftovers
5 QBs
Caleb Williams▼5
Aaron Rodgers▲10
Deshaun Watson▲16
Geno Smith▲12
Daniel Jones▲1Stepped In It
With the exception of Shough and his circumstances, no one here is playing well, flatly, and/or is hurt already. Shough leads the league in dropbacks at 192, has 1,203 yards and nine touchdowns, and the Saints are 1-3 anyway. Herbert has four touchdowns, six picks, twelve sacks, and an 0-4 team. Mayfield was dead last in EPA per dropback before he got hurt. Hurts threw for 93 yards against the Rams. Jayden Daniels played two games and hasn’t been back. Love, Nix, Stroud, all fine, none of them good, and fine isn’t a top-ten quarterback.
Stepped In It
9 QBs
Tyler Shough▲1
Justin Herbert▼12
Jordan Love▼10
Bo Nix▼7
Cj Stroud▼5
Jalen Hurts▼14
Baker Mayfield▼12
Jayden Daniels▼9
Kyler Murray=Looking for a Replacement
Dart is out for the year through no fault of his own, but he missed time to injury before too, and his one full game was 23 of 29 for 230 and three scores. How do you evaluate that? Do you consider another QB already, given the rookie timeline? The Giants did trade for J.J. McCarthy, for what it’s worth, though I don’t think that’s a replacement. Everyone else here, Brissett, Willis, Ward, count your days as QB1. Brissett threw three picks in the Giants game and Ward has three touchdowns in four starts.
Looking for a Replacement
4 QBs
Jacoby Brissett▼2
Malik Willis▼1
Cam Ward▼7
Jaxson Dart▼9The Replacements
They aren’t here to actually replace those guys. With the exception of Mariota, who is already hurt after taking over for Daniels, and Winston, who was so bad in Dart’s place that he may as well stay in that tier, none of them have played a meaningful snap. The rookies stay down here until someone hands them the team.
The Replacements
23 QBs
Tua Tagovailoa▼1
Shedeur Sanders=
Drew Allar=
Fernando Mendoza=
Cade Klubnik=
Carson Beck=
Ty Simpson=
Anthony Richardson=
Justin Fields=
Jj Mccarthy=
Trey Lance=
Dillon Gabriel=
Quinn Ewers=
Spencer Rattler=
Riley Leonard=
Joe Flacco=
Jameis Winston=
Mason Rudolph=
Marcus Mariota=
Mitchell Trubisky=
Mac Jones=
Jake Browning=
Davis Mills=Conclusion
Seven tiers is more honest than ten right now after 4 weeks. There’s Mahomes, there’s six guys who could win it, and then there’s a whole lot of meh. Check back after Week 8.