NFL Picks

My thoughts: Washington to cover in Lambeau because Jayden Daniels has looked composed since his debut—Green Bay can still win it late and we’re fine. I’ll lay points with Detroit against Chicago because I’m not buying the Caleb Williams narrative yet, never have. This bet is reinforcing my disbelief on Caleb, nothing else. In Jaguars @ Bengals, I like an ugly-game, Cincy to win, but I’ll bank JAX +3.5. I’ll take Cowboys -4.5 because as untrustworthy as Dallas can be, I can’t trust the Giants until they move from Russell Wilson, it should be Winston now, but eventually to Jaxson Dart. Patriots +1.5 is more a fade of Miami’s turmoil than a love of New England so long as the Week 2 Maye-to-Boutte connection shows up. Browns +11.5 is simply too many points. I’m not overreacting to Week 1 fireworks—Bills -6.5 defense should hopefully look like a normal defense against the Jets.

Buying the narrative change with Titans +5.5: last year’s ATS nightmare is 1-0 this year, Cam Ward has room to trend up, and that Denver debut was a buzzsaw but provided a lot of positives. Saints +3 is health math problem for the 49ers. Steelers -3 over a thin Seattle offense and Darnold looking average and the weapons aren’t there, while Pittsburgh at least has a functional roster/operation. I’ll take the points in the rock fight with Panthers +6.5 even after that inept Week 1. Give me Colts +1.5 at home with Daniel Jones looking renewed and Bo Nix looking… not so hot. Chiefs +1.5 as a rare home dog is automatic. Vikings -3 might just be back to regular-season juggernaut status. Bucs +2.5 because the Texans stunk and Tampa might be a legit Super Bowl contender. And I’ll grab Raiders +3—they threw it a ton and efficiently; even in a loss, that profile usually keeps you inside the number.