Weekly NFL Picks Against the Spread

My thoughts: Washington to cover in Lambeau because Jayden Daniels has looked composed since his debut—Green Bay can still win it late and we’re fine. I’ll lay points with Detroit against Chicago because I’m not buying the Caleb Williams narrative yet, never have. This bet is reinforcing my disbelief on Caleb, nothing else. In Jaguars @ Bengals, I like an ugly-game, Cincy to win, but I’ll bank JAX +3.5. I’ll take Cowboys -4.5 because as untrustworthy as Dallas can be, I can’t trust the Giants until they move from Russell Wilson, it should be Winston now, but eventually to Jaxson Dart. Patriots +1.5 is more a fade of Miami’s turmoil than a love of New England so long as the Week 2 Maye-to-Boutte connection shows up. Browns +11.5 is simply too many points. I’m not overreacting to Week 1 fireworks—Bills -6.5 defense should hopefully look like a normal defense against the Jets.

Buying the narrative change with Titans +5.5: last year’s ATS nightmare is 1-0 this year, Cam Ward has room to trend up, and that Denver debut was a buzzsaw but provided a lot of positives. Saints +3 is health math problem for the 49ers. Steelers -3 over a thin Seattle offense and Darnold looking average and the weapons aren’t there, while Pittsburgh at least has a functional roster/operation. I’ll take the points in the rock fight with Panthers +6.5 even after that inept Week 1. Give me Colts +1.5 at home with Daniel Jones looking renewed and Bo Nix looking… not so hot. Chiefs +1.5 as a rare home dog is automatic. Vikings -3 might just be back to regular-season juggernaut status. Bucs +2.5 because the Texans stunk and Tampa might be a legit Super Bowl contender. And I’ll grab Raiders +3—they threw it a ton and efficiently; even in a loss, that profile usually keeps you inside the number.

My thoughts: I’m laying it with Bills -11.5—Miami feels like a tire fire and this could be a last-straw game for McDaniel if it snowballs. Falcons -5.5 because the Panthers are, frankly, bad. In Bengals @ Vikings, two QB situations trending messy, so I’ll take the variance cushion with Bengals +3. I’m sticking with Packers -7.5 after the Browns’ no-show—last week said the number wasn’t big enough. Texans +1.5 is a vibes play against a weird Jaguars aura right now. For Raiders @ Commanders, if Jayden Daniels goes I’ll ride Commanders -3.5; if he’s ruled out, that flips.

Patriots +1.5 is more about fading the “old and creaky” Dolphins offense than crowning New England, but I liked the Maye signals. Buccaneers -6.5 because Tampa looks like a real contender and Baker’s dealing. I’ll grab Titans +4.5—the coaching’s a problem, but that’s exactly why I want the points. Rams +3.5 vs a funky-feeling Eagles. Chargers -2.5 with the Broncos propped up by opponent mistakes. Saints +7.5 is too many against Seattle, Darnold-led. Cowboys -1.5 because the Bears look lost with Caleb. I’ll trust 49ers -2.5 (coaching edge over Kyler’s diminished explosiveness), lay it with Chiefs -6 in a “get-right” spot versus the self-sabotaging Giants, and finish with Ravens -4.5—closer game script, but a late cover feels live.

My thoughts: I’ll start with Seahawks -1.5—Arizona’s scrappy, but Seattle flatly better and a field goal feels safe. Vikings -2.5 because Brian Flores is going to bring heat against Rodgers at this stage is a nightmare—if it’s not out in two seconds, he’s cooked. Browns +10 is just about the number—Cleveland’s defense and run game travel, and double-digits is too rich. With Chargers -6, I don’t want to trust a rookie QB debut against a solid roster, even if Jaxson Dart is intriguing.

I’m taking Commanders +2 in Atlanta—a little Mariota revenge angle and the Falcons look messy. Bills -15 is a lot, but this Saints team can’t punch with the Bills, and Buffalo can win by three scores. Patriots -5.5 is a fade of Carolina’s “surprise” last week—no corner turned there. Titans +7 is ugly, but Houston hasn’t convinced me they can cover a full TD against anyone. On Monday Bucs +3.5 purely as a Baker bet—Shake n Bake keeps them live once again.

Rams -3.5 makes me queasy, but the Colts need another week before I buy in. 49ers -3.5 because Purdy’s back and Lawrence looks off—San Fran’s structure wins out. Chiefs +2.5 in KC, especially with Xavier Worthy back, feels like value despite it not coming through last time. Raiders -1.5 is pure ego + I don’t trust the Bears. Packers -7 against Dallas though I’m bracing for the Cowboys’ inevitable backdoor cover. Dolphins -2.5 is just about weapons—two bad teams, one with more firepower. And finally, Bengals +7.5 is a bet I can’t be wrong on twice in a row.

My thoughts: Starting with 49ers +8.5—it’s too many points, even if the Rams handle business. Then Browns +4.5; I can’t trust the Vikings, and Gabriel should at least inject a sliver of life into that offense. With Baltimore +1.5, I just can’t buy into the Texans yet, not against anyone—even with their backup QB advantage. Dolphins -1.5 is simple math: Panthers are bad. Same logic on Cowboys -2.5—Jets are bad.

I’ll take Eagles -4.5, though I’d love a full game of competent offense for once—two weeks ago it was the first half, last week it was the second. Colts -7 because maybe we were just flat wrong about the Raiders. Giants +1.5—Dart doesn’t look hopeless, and the Giants are just catching points against a team worse than them. Titans +8.5… feels insane to go back to this well, but here we are. On Monday night, Bucs +4—because I’m riding with Shake n' Bake always.

Lions -10.5 because the Bengals are collapsing right in front of us. Commanders +2.5 with Jayden Daniels back should be a shot to the offense. Patriots +9 because Buffalo can't blow teams out with that defense. And finally, Chiefs -3.5—because maybe, just maybe, the Chiefs are back to their old ways.

My thoughts: Starting with Giants +7, it's on the board the Eagles blow them out tonight, but I can’t buy into Philly’s inconsistencies. They’ve been that team all year, and it finally caught up to them last week. Add in the locker room “concerns,” and I’m not touching them on the road. Broncos -7.5 — the Jets stink, and I’m banking on Bo Nix putting together another solid one against a team that looks completely checked out. Seahawks +1.5, not exactly a glowing endorsement, but I’ll take the points against a Jaguars team that’s a touch overrated to me. Patriots -3.5 even though the Saints are scrappy, they are not good. The Patriots actually are.

I'll take the Colts -7.5 after watching whatever that was from the Cardinals last week, there’s a 100% less than 0% chance I ever bet on them again. Rams -7.5 as the Ravens without Lamar are a joke. That’s it, that’s the analysis. Cowboys -3 have an elite offense going against a terrible opponent. No need to overthink it. I'm taking the Browns +5.5 with Dillon Gabriel hopefully to give them some juice, and the Flacco trade actually clears up the QB room. Plus, too many points for a bad Aaron Rodgers. I'm reluctantly taking the Chargers -4.5 — betting on the Chargers feels like lighting money on fire, but the Dolphins might be even worse right now. This could be the final Mike McDaniel game if things go south again.

My Titans +4.5 got their first win! So, if the Raiders can’t handle Tennessee at home, it’s time to start asking what direction this team is even going. It’s already a lost year, don’t make it a humiliating one. Bengals +14 too many points, period. Flacco might play, and if he does, that’s a 10% improvement over Jake Browning, which is like saying a paper cut is better than a stab wound. But, its true. I am still riding with Baker until the wheels fall off, so give me theBucs +3. The Lions +2.5 because I can’t trust the Chiefs until they stop being a blooper reel. Last week was supposed to be the real “we’re back” game, instead, it was a comedy of errors. Give me theBills -4.5. I was tempted by Atlanta since Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been great, but the Falcons’ mood swings are too much. You never know which team is showing up. Commanders -4.5 — I’ve said it since midseason last year and I’ll keep saying it: Caleb Williams is a bust. Maybe not a “can’t play in the NFL” bust, but definitely a “#1 pick didn’t change the franchise” kind of bust.

My thoughts: I’ll start with Bengals +5.5. Joe Flacco gives Cincinnati a functional floor, and Pittsburgh hasn’t shown they are blowing teams out. I’m on Rams -3 even with Puka likely out because they are still better than Jacksonville and I still don’t buy Trevor Lawrence in this spot. I’ll take Panthers -1.5 since the Jets have been unwatchable for weeks. I’m grabbing Saints +5 because Chicago isn’t good enough to be laying that number against anyone. I’m reluctantly siding with Browns -2.5. I would avoid this game in real life, but we pick them all here. The Chiefs -11.5 with Rashee Rice returning helps, and Kansas City will look to bury a division rival.

I will take Vikings +1.5. Philadelphia has too many issues to trust. I like the spot for Titans +7. New coach bump, revenge angle, and their best shot to play an A game if they ever are going to. I’ll take Giants +7 because Denver with Bo Nix is too inconsistent to be laying a full touchdown. Give me Colts +1.5. They were sloppy last week, but the Chargers are incredibly banged up. I’m good with Packers -6.5. I don’t believe Arizona repeats last week’s scoring outburst with Jacoby Brissett.

This is a must-have for Commanders -2.5. The urgency is real. I’ll take Falcons +2.5. They’re better than I expected and this is a tight matchup. I’m riding with Bucs +5.5. I still see a #1 seed path when their weapons return and the schedule softens. Last, I'll take Seahawks -3 at home. It’s a lean more than a love, but the home field matters.

My thoughts: Starting with Chargers -3.5 — I just can’t trust the Vikings offense right now. Their QB situation changes every week, and Carson Wentz on the road feels like a horror film nobody asked for. The Chargers are banged up, but they can still handle this one. Falcons -7.5 — the Dolphins are unwatchable, and McDaniels only still has a job because I think the locker room hasn’t fully turned on him yet. That’s not a compliment. Ravens -6.5 because Lamar’s back, and that’s all I need to see. I’ve said it forever: I still don’t buy Caleb Williams, therefore I can't buy the Bears. Bills -7 makes me nervous, because it always does. I’ve been burned by Buffalo plenty, but this is a "must look good" game, and I think they do. Bengals -6.5 — Joe Flacco is 40, throws 50 times a game, and somehow that’s still better than half the league. + the Jets might actually be the worst team in football right now.

Patriots -7 — I wanted to take the Browns, but Dillon Gabriel starting is a no-go. Cleveland’s defense is legit, but their QB situation is a joke. Texans -1.5 — barely enough to make me hesitate, but Houston is better at this point with all the losses for San Fran. But that isn't saying much to be clear. Giants +7.5 — they’ve already beaten Philly once this year, and the Eagles have been a weekly therapy session. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but they’ll fight hard and I don't think Philly is capable of blowing anyone out currently, at least they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. Bucs -4 — they got punched last week, and it showed. But this team’s still good. A get-right game against the Saints feels about right for my Super Bowl Pick. Cowboys +3.5 — I’m taking the points and Dak. The Broncos are solid, but a shootout favors Dak and the Cowboys, not Bo Nix.

Colts -14 — I don’t care how big the number is, the Titans are terrible. It’s between them and the Jets for “most painful team to watch.” And yes, I’ll still complain even if they somehow cover. Steelers +3 — Mike Tomlin at home, as an underdog, against a team we keep pretending is elite. That’s an auto-pick. Finally, Chiefs -12 — Kansas City looks like they’re on a mission again. The Commanders can hang for a quarter, maybe, but it’s over quickly I think.